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2010 Australian Open Preview

by Zach Bigalke

FIVE QUICK THOUGHTS

1.      Can Oudin Push Further? --  The American tennis scene has been waiting for some time for a viable female to step up and push the Williams sisters for top-dog status nationally and in the world rankings. Enter 18-year-old Melanie Oudin, who sparked onto the scene with some huge upsets last season en route to appearances in the fourth round at Wimbledon and in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open. The young lady from Marietta, Georgia comes to play in Melbourne for the second time in her career, having lost last year in the first round to 6’3” Uzbek veteran Akgul Amanmuradova. This year she draws a fellow unseasoned neophyte to the scene, 22-year-old Russian Alla Kudryavtseva, who herself has never gone beyond the second round of the Australian Open. Oudin would likely have a tough match against ten-seed Agnieszka Radwanska in the second round... but as she proved last year in defeats of Jelena Jankovic, Elena Dementieva and Maria Sharapova, she is more than up to the task of playing tough competition on the biggest stages. Look for her to continue her teenage ascent through the tennis world.

2.      Which Nadal Will Show? -- Last year we saw Spanish southpaw Rafael Nadal break through for his first Grand Slam victory on a hard-court surface. Outlasting his eternal doppelganger, Roger Federer, on the Rebound Ace of Rod Laver Arena, Nadal joined a handful of legends who have won majors on all three surfaces. Many (including myself) were talking about how Nadal could become the first male since Rod Laver himself in 1969 to sweep the calendar Grand Slam. And you know what? It is still possible -- Nadal comes to Australia still just 23 and only beginning to really come into his prime, something which should scare the rest of the field. If he is healthy after recovering from knee tendonitis following a spring season that saw him continue his clay-court blitzkrieg only to lose at the French Open to Robin Soderling on the cusp of a record-breaking fifth consecutive title at Roland Garros and miss his defense of his 2008 Wimbledon win, Rafa should still scare everyone. Sitting at the bottom of the bracket, he shouldn’t face a real test until the quarterfinals, where the likely challenger will be either Andy Murray or Gael Monfils (but don’t be surprised if John Isner is in there). He got over the hump last year... is this the season he finally puts all the lessons together?

3.      Speaking of Murray... -- There is a wide pack of hopefuls on the men’s side who have the talent to compete with the dominant duo of Nadal and Federer that could make waves in Melbourne yet have never won a Grand Slam tournament. Andy Murray has slipped to #5 in the world rankings due to the U.S. Open win of Juan Martin Del Potro and a late-season drought of his own, though the Scot still remains more than a handful when on the other side of the net. Nikolay Davydenko, the man who won the ATP World Tour Finals last year yet has gone no further than the semifinals at any Grand Slam in his decade-long career, is on good form and would square off against Federer should he advance out of his section of the bracket to the quarterfinals. Robin Soderling proved himself last season to be a giant-killer with his French Open upset of the ages over Nadal and continues to improve with experience. And then the crowded field behind includes guys like Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fernando Verdasco and Nicolas Almagro, Isner and Marin Cilic. At least one of these guys has a legitimate shot at surprising his way into the quarterfinals.

4.      All-Belgian Quarterfinal? -- Kim Clijsters made coming back from retirement look easy last year as she swept through the field on her way to the 2009 U.S. Open title less than two months after returning from her sabbatical. She comes in as the 15-seed, set on a path that is not without peril. After likely survival through the first two rounds, a potential combination of Nadia Petrova and Svetlana Kuznetsova awaits. Should she make it to the quarterfinals through this maze, she might just see a fellow former retiree and compatriot on the other side of the net. Former world number-one Justine Henin has returned to the tour after retiring prior to the 2008 French Open and will be playing in her first Grand Slam tournament back since losing in Melbourne to Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals of the 2008 Australian Open. Henin will play fellow Belgian Kirsten Flipkens in the opening round before a date with either Elena Dementieva or Vera Dushevina in the second round. The challenge won’t get any easier for either woman as the tournament progresses, especially if they manage to win their first four...

5.      Can Anyone Stop Serena? -- The defending champion on the women’s side came under fire recently for her verbal abuse of a lineswoman in her quarterfinal match against Kim Clijsters in the semifinals at Flushing Meadows that resulted in a point penalty on Clijsters’ match point and the largest total fine for one offense in professional tennis history ($82,500). Williams has regained her number-one status from Dinara Safina, and she obviously knows how to win at this tournament -- another win in 2010 would equal her four Wimbledon titles for the most at any one Grand Slam event. With little resistance as the number-one seed -- she will likely face Carla Suarez-Navarro in the third round, Samantha Stosur in the fourth, and anyone amongst Viktoria Azarennka, Vera Zvonareva, Elena Vesnina, Ana Ivanovic or even Iveta Benesova in the quarterfinals -- Williams will have a clear path right to the final four. We might just see her in another epic duel with her sister Venus for a spot in this year’s final...

MOST LIKELY TO SURPRISE WAY INTO QUARTERS

Women: Daniela Hantuchova (22), Elena Vesnina (28), Justine Henin (--)

Men: Gael Monfils (12), Marin Cilic (14), Nicolas Almagro (26)

QUARTERFINAL PROJECTIONS

Women

Men

Submitted 1/17/10

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