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Thoughts on the 2009 Big Ten Season

 John Mitchell: And I am once again back in the captain’s chair this week as I have pretty much recovered from my car accident, other than the occasional back twinge. Thanks to Zach for taking over for me last week. I hope you enjoyed the Big XII Review, and here with me to review the Big Ten are Zach Bigalke and Matt Strobl.  

Zach Bigalke: I am glad that you're feeling better, John. And it sure is nice to be taking a look at a region and conference that is near and dear to this displaced Cheesehead's heart.  

Matt Strobl:  The Big Ten is my wheelhouse.   

Mitchell: Why don’t we start about assessing the bowl performances by Big Ten teams. Are they closing the gap with the SEC?  

Bigalke: They definitely impressed in their head-to-head matchups in the bowls, and the conference as a whole acquitted themselves well after a couple down seasons. I think the gap is closing among all the BCS conferences, but that is as much an indication of the SEC and Big XII having down years as it was the Big Ten improving. The perception has a long way to go still, but the on-field gap isn't nearly as wide as most pundits want to believe. But to give credit where it is due, the Big Ten provided several refreshing eye-openers that will serve their cause well going into 2010 and beyond.

Strobl: The gap between the two is wide only at the top.  There is a substantial difference between the best SEC teams and the best Big Ten teams, but as you work your way down through the conferences those differences become less and less pronounced.  I think that was proven by matchups like Penn State-LSU.  The reality is that aside from 2 or 3 teams that rotate in and out of greatness, the SEC is as vulnerable as any other league.  The Big Ten has been maligned in recent years thanks to sloppy performances by Ohio State in a couple of title games and a stinker by Penn State in Pasadena .  But it’s an overstatement to say it is comprised of less talent than other power conferences.  I think this year’s slate of bowl games was a wake-up call for a lot of fans.  Minnesota failed to impress against a surprisingly competent Iowa State team, but look at the remaining games.  A very short-handed Michigan State played tough against high-scoring Texas Tech, Northwestern very nearly handled Auburn (losing primarily because of turnovers), Wisconsin and Iowa trounced their ACC foes, and the Buckeyes blasted Oregon .  And as I referenced earlier, Penn State won ugly against an erstwhile SEC powerhouse.  The statements were clear.  On these occasions, the Big Ten handled its business against the SEC, Pac 10, and ACC and silenced at least some of the doubters.  But the effort needs to be ongoing, and 2010 will be another test for a league still seeking respect.    

Mitchell: The Big Ten represented well in the bowl season as we saw both Big Ten teams win their BCS game with Ohio State shocking most by knocking off Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and then Iowa defeated Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl a few days later. Wisconsin and Penn State notched big wins for the conference as well with the Badgers knocking off Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl and Penn State beating LSU in the Capital One Bowl. Northwestern fell just short of defeating Auburn in the Outback Bowl to get the Big Ten to 2-0 against the SEC in bowl games this season. But, I’m not sure anybody is closing the gap with the SEC right now. I mean, I don’t expect the SEC to continue dominating for much longer, but for now, it looks like they have a clear edge over the rest of the competition. I mean, if you look at the top 5 recruiting classes right now, two days before signing day, the SEC has four of the top five recruiting classes according to rivals.com. But, the perception of the Big Ten has changed thanks to their impressive showing in bowl season. They are no longer thought of along the lines of the Big East and ACC.

The Big Ten seems hell-bent on adding a 12^th team so they can have a conference championship. Do you think they should add that 12^th team, and if Missouri doesn’t accept the invite, who else should the Big Ten target?

Strobl:  I’ve long been disgusted with the preferential treatment extended to Notre Dame.  If not for the school’s various sweetheart deals, the Irish would be a perfect addition to the Big Ten.  It would be a great fit in terms of geography while adding considerable gravitas -- a program with Notre Dame’s heritage would make an immediate impact on the conference’s status.  But regardless of how much sense such a move makes, it’s not going to happen.  Notre Dame is locked into the benefits it enjoys as an Independent.  Apparently, the NCAA sees no problem with the fact that school is reliant on conference affiliation in other major sports while enjoying unparalleled freedom in its football endeavors.  But why should expect logic from the NCAA?  In any event, the Irish are out, and that leaves Mizzou as the Big Ten’s primary target.  As I commented in the Big XII review, it’s a move that might make sense for both sides, but it would be a major shift.  If that fails, I think the Big Ten has no choice but to pursue either a lesser Big XII team like Iowa State , or a Big East powerhouse like Pitt or UC.  If it’s the latter, the move would implement a chain reaction that could be extremely disruptive to the entire FBS -- one which I find hard to imagine actually coming to fruition.  With limited options expect the Big Ten to push Missouri hard.  I honestly don’t know what the result would be, but adding a 12th team and corresponding title game would be good moves in the current BCS environment.  

Bigalke: The Big "Ten" has already grown beyond its name, and so the addition of one more team -- while it would further render absurd the conference's name -- would make sense from a fiscal and a competitive standpoint. And in Missouri 's case, leaving the Big XII for the Big Ten would be a boon for the athletic department's finances. But as we discussed in the Big XII review, it would make little competitive sense for the Tigers to leave their current affiliation. So who would I advocate the Big Ten go after? Well, most people have looked east for the twelfth team. But I think that Iowa State makes the most logical sense from a geographical standpoint, offering up natural divisional boundaries into east and west.

Mitchell: I think it’s smart for the Big Ten to go after a twelfth team so they can have a conference championship game. The Big Ten always finishes their season before everybody, and they have already made some strides to improve that by pushing games like Michigan-Ohio State to after Thanksgiving. This season, the Big Ten teams were done two weeks before the likes of the SEC, Big XII, and the other power conferences. I don’t think the move to the Big Ten would make sense to Missouri , because they play in a weaker Big XII North, although Nebraska looks to be grabbing a firm grip on the division with Bo Pelini. I think Missouri has an easier road in the Big XII than they would if they decided to jump ship to the Big Ten. I would have to agree with Zach that Iowa State would make the most sense if Missouri rejects the invitation. But, I also agree with Matt that Notre Dame should have to be relegated to a conference, and the Big Ten or Big East would make the most sense for the Fighting Irish.  

What do you think of the new Big Ten bowl arrangement?

Bigalke: Well, it’s one hell of a coup for the Big Ten. Frankly, I would have liked to see the conference diversify the opponents they face. With games against just the SEC, Big XII and Pac-10 (and one potentially in the Cotton Bowl against Conference USA ), the Big Ten completely ignores the ACC and Big East. Why? We’ve seen college basketball grow the Big Ten/ACC challenges in recent years, and there is a definite gap being left in their schedule. Sure, the conference will make more money and got what it wanted, but it doesn’t necessarily give us fans any more of what we wanted to see.  

Strobl: I think it immediately strengthens the conference’s position relative to other leagues.  Six of its seven affiliated bowls will be played on New Year’s Eve or Day, and those bowls have a certain cachet that can’t be underestimated.  They also tend to draw more viewers, which can never be a bad thing for the competing teams.  The Gator Bowl got stronger, and the newly formed Dallas Football Classic -- to be held in the Cotton Bowl -- got an immediate injection of credibility.  The Texas Bowl is the third new affiliation, and that trio replaces the Alamo , Champs Sports, and Motor City Bowls, all of which can be considered lesser games.  

Mitchell: It’s definitely good for the conference, and will provide more exposure for the conference. I agree with my co-hosts and don’t feel the need to elaborate any further on the subject.  

Michigan State standout LB Greg Jones has decided to come back for one more year at Michigan State . What do you think of his decision, should he have declared early?  

Strobl:  Things ended on such a sour note for the Spartans that I can see why a player might want to return.  It would be a tough way to leave school -- knowing that your team was in turmoil and its reputation irrevocably stained.  The 2010 draft is a deep one, and Jones, while very talented, would have been ranked behind several other ILBs.  Though it’s always a risk to defer NFL paychecks, Jones will very likely be the best linebacker available in 2011, which could ultimately translate to more money and a better playing situation than he might get if he declared this year.  

Bigalke: I can never fault a student-athlete for wanting to stay in school for a final season. Jones, like many blue-chip prospects on both sides of the ball, is taking a major risk with his NFL future by returning to school, certainly. But even if he endures a nightmare scenario like Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford faced this year, Jones will still be set better long-term for remaining in school. The smart bet says that, even with all the uncertainty surrounding NFL collective bargaining, the cash will still be waiting for a player of Jones' caliber when he finishes the 2010 season.  

Mitchell: I like seeing players like Jones return to school to pursue their degree, and it was probably the right decision by him because I don’t think he would have ended up being drafted in the first round. Jones was a tackling machine the last two seasons in East Lansing . He registered 127 tackles in his sophomore season and 153 his junior season. I think after a third straight big production year that Jones is likely to have this season that he will end up being drafted higher next year than he would have been this year, pending he doesn’t suffer an injury.  

With Bobby Bowden stepping down at Florida State , what do you think is the likelihood that Joe Paterno follows suit after next season?  

Bigalke: If the Penn State administration didn't push Paterno out during his dry spell earlier in the decade, it won't happen after the upcoming season. Unlike Bowden, his longtime aging doppelganger down south, Paterno isn't going to be forced to "resign" at the end of 2010. The similarities fade even further when you realize that the Nittany Lions aren't tied to an elaborate coach-in-waiting plan like Florida State was with Jimbo Fisher. If I had to out a percentage on the likelihood, I would estimate a 15% probability that Paterno does not come back for 2011.  

Strobl:  I find it unlikely.  Bowden was forced out, and I suspect it would take a similar act on Penn State ’s part to get Paterno out of the driver’s seat.  The difference is that while Bowden’s program struggling both on and off the field, Paterno’s Lions have improved in recent years.  It wasn’t so long ago that Penn State was suffering and fans were demanding Joe Pa’s ouster.  How quickly such things are forgotten in the wake of winning seasons and Rose Bowl berths.  Penn State will likely take a step back next year with the depature of some key players on both sides of the ball, most notably QB Daryll Clark and LB Sean Lee.  But I still expect PSU to compete near the top of the conference, and that should be good enough to allow Paterno to go out on his own terms.

Mitchell: I don’t think Joe Paterno will be on the sidelines in Happy Valley much longer, and I think it is more likely that he retires after next season than my two co-hosts do. If I had to estimate, I would go with a 25% chance he steps down in 2011 and I would raise it to about 50% in 2012. I do think that with Bowden now out of the picture, and the most wins in FBS history set in Paterno’s corner, that it will make it easier for Paterno to pull the trigger when the time comes. Although, nothing in Paterno’s performance is going to get him out of the Penn State driver’s seat. He went through a couple rough years, but has this team back at the top of the Big Ten again. He won’t have to worry about a force out like Bowden did in Tallahassee .

 Part II

Submitted 2/4/10

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