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by Joe Cantello 

In 2009, it was UNC, UConn, Michigan State and Villanova in the Final Four and NC taking down State in the finals.

2009 was also a year that saw the Big East roar with Louisville , Pittsburgh and Villanova joining UConn in advancing to the Elite Eight and threatening to make the Final Four an almost entire Big Beast Extravaganza. As we know that did not come to be but the once little sister of the major college conferences did establish itself as a force in NCAA basketball if it had not done so before the 2009 NCAAs. The Big 12 also made some racket heading into the Elite Eight with Oklahoma and Missouri being right in the thick of the frenzy of March Madness. Now in 2010 what was an assumed a fait accompli, i.e., UConn, UNC, Louisville , Oklahoma all thought to be favorites to win close to twenty games and have their tickets punched to the tournament, now is in very real jeopardy and turmoil.  We may be seeing an entirely new landscape being written in major college basketball. Moreover, maybe in 2010 the chance for a true Cinderella to usurp the power to throne might be a distinct reality. Could it be that in 2010’s version of  March Madness it finally becomes a reality that a school such as Gonzaga, St. Mary’s or Temple not only make to the Final Four but one of them actually steals the title away from the core elite power teams of UNC, Duke, Syracuse, Michigan State, Kentucky, Texas, et al.  That one of  these mid majors finally roar mightily for maybe a fleeting moment of glory but what a so very sweet moment it would be for all the underdogs and little guys much like the time UConn finally ascended to the top of college ball when they took down mighty Duke.

If 2009 was a tournament of the favorites, the chalk, playing to form, then 2010 has been a year of some decidedly surprising and maybe even shocking results so far heading towards March.

(All records and stats are as of February 2, 2010, unless noted.)

UNC, UConn, Louisville and Oklahoma might not even make it into the tournament of 64. Not unless all of these teams start winning some games and winning them soon. Especially, UConn who has shown so far they are not ready for prime time with essentially not one of their big men stepping up to assert themselves on the boards and seemingly being only a team that is, in most of their games, six deep at best.  What UConn has going for it, also plays against its chances to make the tournament, i.e., their Strength of Schedule (SoS) rank is #2 and their RPI is 44 which means the road is not about to get any easier. The presently are 1-4 against teams ranked I n the RPI top 50. And, 6-3 against the next 50 ranked teams. With nine games left in their regular season, they will face Syracuse , Villanova, Louisville and Notre Dame. Right now, these look like four more losses. Just to get back on the bubble they need to win at least two of those games and maybe all of them.  Their only other chance to make the tourney would to be the Big East tournament champs and get the automatic in. 

UNC is 2-4 in the ACC and overall has a 13-8 record. They, similar to UConn, may not even be a bubble team right now. Their SoS is 24 and their RPI is 76. The stand 2-6 against teams in the top 50 RPI and 3-2 against the next 50 ranked teams. They have a marquee win against Michigan State but have big losses versus other teams such as Syracuse , Texas and Wake Forest . They have played Georgia Tech and Kentucky tough but lost both times. Their final games include matches against Georgia Tech, Maryland , Wake, Virginia and then Duke. They need some wins here and just like UConn if they don’t win the majority of these games they may need to win their conference tournament (ACC) to be playing in March.

Oklahoma is 3-4 in the Big 12 and 12-9, (SoS = 52/RPI = 83). They, too may be on the outside looking in come tourney time. They have no real marquee wins and have nine games left to improve their tournament chances including these six games: Texas (2), Oklahoma State , Kansas , Kansas State , and Baylor. They probably need to win four of those games to be a bubble team.

Louisville (SoS = 5/RPI = 47) finally got a win against a top RPI team when they beat UConn on 2/1. However, considering UConn’s state lately that might not be that bit of an accomplishment. They were previously 0-6 against teams with an RPI of better than 50. They also have two losses to teams with RPIs that rank between 50-100. However, they can still make a big statement to the tournament of 64 selection committee by beating, or at least playing Syracuse and Georgetown tough, in their upcoming games against these two powerhouses as the Big East winds down. They have two games versus the Orange (AP 4) and one versus Georgetown (AP 6). A win or two or three here re-establishes them as a top-flight team heading into the tournament. Nevertheless, even if they lose to these teams they can still impress the selection committee by playing these two top ten teams tough and by sweeping all their other games as the season winds down. But realistically if they lose these three to Syracuse and Georgetown and then stumble against any of the other opponents then they face not making it into March Madness unless they do well in the Big East post season tournament.

Then there are Michigan State , Villanova and Missouri from last years Elite Eight.

Michigan State’s (SoS 50/RPI = 11) overwhelming recent 67-49 loss to Wisconsin did not exactly destroy their decent season so far this year but it did reinforce the idea that they also have taken a step back from their previous season’s strong finish, which saw them in the 2008-2009 season’s finale versus North Carolina.  The Spartan’s now have four losses on the season and two of the have been to a couple of so-so teams, UNC and Florida . The other loss is to Texas who at the time they defeated State were riding high but who have recently proven they might not be as good as everyone had previously perceived them to be as the close down into February. State can either make or break their seeding in the upcoming NCAAs due to the fact they are about to face two of its top competitors in the Big Ten, Purdue (twice) and Ohio State in their remaining eight games. The Spartans sweep these games, which means they would also have taken three out of three against their main competition in their conference and two top twenty  teams, Purdue (AP 8) and Ohio State (AP 13), they may be justified in saying they deserve a number one seed this year heading into the tournament.

Villanova (SoS = 42/RPI = 4) is quietly surprising people this year as they have ascended to the number two position in the latest AP poll. However, what is surprising is that anyone should be surprised at their steady and strong play throughout this season heading into February. After all, Villanova was a Final Four team last season.  And unlike some of the other Elite Eight teams from last season, notably the aforementioned in this article, the Wildcats have played as good if not better this season than they did last season. The Cats have signature wins against Georgetown and Maryland . Only Temple (AP 19) has been able to solve Villanova’s tenacity on the court.   The Rising Big East team can probably lock up a number one seed by winning out especially considering that would include games at Georgetown 2/6 (AP 7), Pittsburgh 2/21 (AP 22) and Syracuse 2/27 (AP 3). A loss in any of those three mentioned games could hurt their number one seed, but depending on the rest of the nations teams results, not irreparably.

Then finally, the last team in last season’s Elite Eight was Missouri . Missouri (SoS = 70/RPI = 32) is probably a lock to make the tournament as a middle seed team. Their record, presently at 16-6, more or less is a lock considering they are coming out of the fairly decent Big 12 and have a history of playing fair to very decent in the NCAAs. Regardless of what the tourney selectors may say those are considerable points in Mizzou’s favor. However, some of their losses are worth noting. Specifically they have two losses to middling teams, Oklahoma (12-9) and Texas A&M (15-6). They also have a vey bad loss to Oral Roberts who carries a 12-10 record this season and has a Strength of Schedule rank of 155 and an RPI rank of 131.

Then there is the revolving door trend atop, and throughout the rankings, of the AP Top Twenty five teams this year. After Kansas (which presently is again atop the AP poll), led the Polls overwhelming for nine weeks (including preseason) the Jayhawks then took a loss to Tennessee . Though the Vols have a decent record, and will probably be at least a four seed, if not a three, they did take two losses to two not so very good teams, Georgia and USC. The old adage that any team that does not come ready to play can be taken down became a reality when Tennessee did take down the then best team in the country. It also established, and this was reinforced by what has transpired since atop the polls since Kansas relinquished its top dog status, the just referenced revolving status at the top and throughout the polls since what night be called a somewhat defining moment to this season.

Kansas (SoS = 11/RPI = 1) currently is atop the Big 12, arguably one of the three most powerful conferences in the country. The Big 12 presently has at least seven candidates for admission into the field of 64. Kansas has nine games left in their Big 12 schedule and if they sweep the board, they earn most likely the number one seed in the tournament of 64. They have games left against Missouri (16-5), Kansas State (17-4/AP 10), Texas (18-3/AP 9) and Oklahoma State (16-5). All four of these teams have decent SoS and RPI numbers with Kansas State actually rated number 1 in Strength of Schedule rank and number eight in RPI rank.

The other number one teams that were riding high in late 2009 are decidedly not proving themselves reedy for Prime Time in 2010. Texas and Kentucky have shown they have flaws to their games.

Texas (SoS = 58/RPI = 19) is presently spinning its wheels and may be showing that using an eight man rotation might not be as good as establishing a firm starting five with a strong supporting three or four men off the bench. Right now the Texas team after a 17-0 start is in the midst of losing three of their last five games. Unless Texas totally collapses ala UConn (six losses in their last seven games), they are in the tourney and seeded relatively high. However, to keep that high seed they need to prove they are an elite team by beating Kansas , (AP #1) on 2/13 and then taking down Baylor (AP #16) on 3/6.

Kentucky (SoS = 55/RPI = 6) was named #1 and then went out and solidified its hold on the top spot by losing to South Carolina (1/26).  Then are a lock to be in the tourney and if they can sweep their remaining games are a lock for a number one seed, too. They do have games coming up against Vanderbilt (AP #16), Tennessee (AP #9) and a decent Mississippi State team. However, should they stumble against these teams or any other teams they will be relegated down the ladder of seeding the same as Texas is presently facing.  And, so far they really don’t have any marquee wins on their record unless UConn and Louisville can be counted as a marquee win but both these teams are not the powers they were last NCAA season and both teams are not presently elite examples of Big East strength. Kentucky does get to seek revenge on 2/25 when they rematch with South Carolina for their defeat to that team back on 1/26. 

Duke (SoS = 6/RPI = 5), never a number in the nation but who is presently atop the ACC, had their own reality check recently when in a loss to the Big East’s Georgetown when they allowed the Hoyas to shoot a lights out 71.7 percent from the field. Georgetown is a very good team right now but even N.C. State shot 58.2 percent against the Dukies when they beat Duke on Jan. 20. Duke has games remaining against NC (twice), Maryland and Virginia . These are winnable games for Duke that they should win BUT that they can easily lose depending on their ability to guard the other teams best shooters. They come not ready to play defense as they did against Georgetown or North Carolina State and they could leave the basketball court that night with a “L” and not a “W”.  Duke needs to finish strong to hold onto a number 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. Right now I have doubts about North Carolina even making it into the field of 64 but no NC/Duke game is ever a foregone conclusion and if by the end of the regular ACC conference schedule when these team meet if NC is not in position to go in to the post season I expect a real down and out dogfight.

Part Two

Submitted 2/7/2010

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