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Welcome to the Tuesday TKO - the Miyama is over so
no graphics (yet)
This week its Joao, Michael, Dan, Robert and David
taking the first plunge into the new day of the week!
1. Give me your over/under for the PPV buys for WEC 48.
Joao Pedro: Around 100 thousand. The PPV itself is pricey and MMA fans are already buying the UFC PPVs (among so many other things!), so this isn't going to be easy for the WEC. The card is very good but the WEC brand recognition isn't very strong. Plus, I am going to repeat myself: it is too expensive. Maybe Zuffa should have just lowered the price in order to get more buys (decrease the profit margin for each buy but get it back in terms of quantity, thus creating added brand awareness and recognition).
Michael Rich: My over/under will be 150,000.5. I do think they will break even, but I don't see this event breaking any records. I will be ordering, but I don't think this event appeals to the casual fan.
David Snipes: It really depends on Strikeforce- for the record I'll say 180K, but If Strikeforce moves to that weekend- I'm dropping to 120K. (more on that later)
Dan Vachalek: I really can't give a great over/under for something when there is not a mid-point to give. So this question is basically moot then. If you're going to use 130,000, I'm going under.
Robert Menn:
200,000. I think the card is good enough despite it being WEC and
not UFC. And if Dana and crew do all the video blogs and advertising
that they do for UFC events it should get around 200,000. A success
in my eyes.
2. How many buys does the WEC need to do to be a success (consider 130,000 is supposed to be break-even)
Joao: 150 thousand is a success, 200 thousand would be lights out. The break-even point that you mention is a mild victory. But, like I said in the previous question, I don't think they will reach that plateau.
Michael: I think 200,000 buys would be considered a success by WEC. Anything less than that,they barely break even, but 200,000 is what they should be hoping for.
David: 200K or more to get the WEC back on PPV- anything below that and its a failure, under 100K and its the biggest
embarrassment for the Zuffa since UFC 103
Dan: I'm going to say over 130,000. That would be like 135,000-150,000. That would mean that they would be making more cash then even, which would definitely be a success.
Robert: Oh, well I guess I already
answered this. 200,000 would be great, but to be a success, 180,000
would do just fine. I still say it's going to be 200k+. I know
I'm looking forward to that card.
3. April 17th is going to be another H2H showdown, with Strikeforce going up against Fight Night 22. Is this a good idea for Zuffa to do this?
Joao: From a business standpoint I totally agree with Zuffa's initiative. I would do the same in their place. They will have a mildly entertaining card with Fight Night 22, as they will not be able to stack it with top notch fights, but it will be enough to divert attention from the Strikeforce event. I spoke of brand recognition regarding the WEC; in this case the UFC's brand recognition advantage alone will be able to divert viewers from the mentioned Strikeforce event. Many people mistake "MMA" for "UFC".
Michael: I don't think this is a good idea for Zuffa. I love the free Fight Nights, but Strikeforce does have some big fights for their event, and some names people will recognize. Jake Shields, Gegard Mousasi and Dan Henderson are all known to casual fans.
Plus CBS generally draws more viewers than Spike TV.
David: Horrid- HORRID Idea doing that. The UFC needs to counter-program the PPV events- but doing so vs CBS is just stupid. Most people I know are going to Tivo one and watch the other. You are not cutting anyone out. Everyone has CBS, not everyone has Spike. The hard part is if Strikeforce moves it vs the WEC, as noted above it will cost the UFC a HUGE part of its market. If Fedor/Hendo was going up against WEC on PPV- the WEC wouldn't crack 50K buys with proper buildup by Strikeforce.
Dan: I think so. I think that Strikeforce can handle Fight Night and that it might have people, who have the luxary of, taping one event and watching it at a later date while watching the other in real TV. I think that this is a good move, though. Strikeforce should do better than Fight Night.
Robert: Let's face it, the majority
of American MMA fans are UFC fans, not MMA per se. I think the
hardcore MMA fans will watch the Strikeforce event and DVR/TiVo the Fight
Night card. Is it smart? Yes, I think it's smart for Zuffa to
continue to crush the competition. The have the name and the money,
so that equals the power.
4. Silva, GSP and Penn are all defending in the next few months- gun to your head- who loses their belt? you have to pick ONE.
Joao: Hardy has a puncher's chance but GSP won't fall for that, getting the takedowns and ground control at will. Frankie Edgar will try to outwrestle BJ but fail miserably; and I hope Edgar isn't willing to stand and trade.
And while I also believe Anderson Silva will beat Demian Maia, having to choose an upset to happen this is it. The scenario in which Maia gets close enough, pulls guard or - gasp - gets the takedown and works for a submission while both men aren't slippery enough yet.
Michael: If my backs against the wall, I will take BJ Penn. Silva should have no problem with Maia. Maia has a great ground game, but Silva will pick him apart. I think Hardy will be one of GSP's easiest title defenses. I think Frankie Edgar has the best shot at an upset.
David: I've been saying for over a YEAR that Maia is the next champion. Hardy has no shot, GSP is miles beyond the glass jaw that Serra faced, and I have as much chance as Edgar does of beating Penn, actually I have more as I weigh almost twice what Penn does. If Maia can get Anderson on the ground with more than 3 minutes left, we have a new champion.
Dan: I'm going to have to pick Penn. I don't think that he is going to be able to defend it as well as the other ones and I just think that he'll have a slowdown and lose, if I have to pick one. I do think that all will win their respective matches, though.
Robert: Gun to my head?....I'm
thinking GSP, only because Hardy has KO power and if Serra can knockout
GSP then Hardy surely can. However, I really don't see GSP getting
knocked out. If Alves couldn't do it (so sad) then I don't think
anyone it that division will. Gun to my head though, GSP.
5. How is having James Toney, or even Kimbo Slice, better than having Hershel Walker or Choi Hong-man on your roster?
Joao: Walker, Kimbo and Toney are blatant, shameful, money moves by the UFC and Strikeforce. Of these three Toney is the least "offensive name", let's call it that; sure, he is 41 and he's looking for a paycheck, but he was also a professional boxer with a distinguished career. Power is the last thing you lose (just ask Tim Sylvia - Ray Mercer about that) with age so Toney is going to have an obvious puncher's chance and ability. I for one hope the UFC doesn't match him with a Chuck Liddell but rather with a Randy Couture. It's time to show the boxing world how limited a non well-rounded fighter really is.
Kimbo is an obvious money move by the UFC but he will get exposed as soon as he faces a good opponent.
Walker is arguably the worst of the three. He is by far the oldest and comes from an unrelated background. And yes, I know he's a Tae Kwon Do Black Belt and so forth.
The sport of MMA shouldn't need these 3 guys. Choi is a K-1 veteran and might not be a contender, is a legit MMA fighter.
Michael: James Toney and Kimbo Slice will draw more viewers than Hershel or Kim. I'm not a fan of having any of them, but from a marketing stand point, Kimbo and Toney are more popular today.
David: Dana lost the high ground- but lets be honest, I love the move, Pride constantly had the freak show fights and on occasion, they were the most entertaining fights on the card- Cro-Cop himself fought MMA under "special rules" when he started. I've got no problem here, I know you are all stunned- but Lyoto/Shogun II or Toney vs Kimbo or Toney vs Cro-Cop? Heck- Cheik Kongo vs Toney
Dan: Kimbo Slice is a great fighter. He has a ton of power in his punches and that is always going to do a lot of damage. Just look at how he faces against other competition. He might not be as quick as others, but when he gets them where he gets them, they are toast as his punch releases so much power, it's incredible. Nobody else punches with that much force. He does need to work on his stamina though.
Robert: Well, first off, Dana will
throw Toney in there with good competition. Walker fought who
again? Exactly. Also, Toney was/is a professional boxer.
That's a combat sport if you didn't know. Hershel just
practiced TKD. He does look like a genetic freak, but practicing and
fighting are two entirely different things. As for Kimbo, Kimbo at
least went through the TUF house and went to train with a legit fight
camp. I won't bash Walker too much, as he went to train with a legit
camp too, but Toney and Kimbo aren't as bad as Walker and Choi.
6. Do you expect to see Mousasi in the UFC sooner rather than later with his split from M-1?
Joao: Yes... if he keeps winning. If Mousasi loses to King Mo, for example, the UFC will have its sights set on
Lawal. But if Mousasi keeps winning, and when his contract is up, the UFC would do well to snag him. Especially if he is, by then, still the reigning Strikeforce Light Heavyweight champion.
He is young but already one of the world's top Light Heavyweights, traditionally the top division, the most deep and interesting division in the UFC. The match-up possibilities would be almost endless. Mousasi vs Bones? vs
Minotouro? Vera? Machida or Shogun? Lots of good fights there.
Michael: I think Mousasi will be in the UFC sooner rather than later. I'm sure UFC could pay him more, and UFC could hype him up for a super fight between him and either Anderson Silva or the winner of Lyoto Machida and Shogun
Rua.
David: This has to be a HUGE blow to Strikeforce, M-1 can yank around the UFC until Dana says he is not worth it- but If Mous walks into Dana's office- tosses the Strikeforce belt on his desk and says- give me the deal you offered Henderson- and I want a tuneup fight and if I win I want a title shot. Dana is going to wet his pants and call Joe Silva faster than Rampage can say "I pity the fool"
Dan: I do. I think that he'll be able to get there in the next 2-3 years, so it isn't that far off. He's not that bad of a fighter, but he needs to work on his ground game as well as his stamina. He also needs help with keeping himself in his strong position.
Robert: In a word, yes.
M-1 reportedly reported the wrong offer that Zuffa gave them to Mousassi
and that's why he was upset and left them. So after his Strikeforce
deal is up, you can expect Dana to resend the offer. One can only
imagine how they are handling Fedor. I've said it before, but I'll
say it again, M-1 is horrible for fighters. Reminds me of Don King.
7. Is Jens Pulver a Hall of Famer?
Joao: A UFC Hall of Fame, without regarding his WEC career? (or any other fights outside of the UFC, for that matter) Perhaps. If you consider that he is the first ever UFC Lightweight champion, that he defended that belt successfully against BJ Penn and Dennis Hallman, if you consider his troubled yet inspiring life experience, his coaching and also if you take into account that his heyday happened between 2000 and 2002 - when the sport was almost completely different.
In my opinion, and for the standard a UFC (or MMA, for that matter) Hall of Fame should possess I would not include Jens
Pulver. His run of domination wasn't long enough and his last UFC fights definitely hurt his legacy.
Michael: I'm a big fan of Pulver, but I wouldn't put hium in the Hall of Fame. He is one of the few to beat BJ Penn, and his life story is a great read, but he is 6-1-1 in the UFC. I don't think 8 fights warrents a Hall of Fame bid.
David: Depends on the Hall of Fame you are talking about- If you mean the Zuffa crud that has Coleman in it- then maybe, If you are talking a legit one- then no. I don't think Jens gets in- had he quit after the first Faber fight- then he would have a STRONG case, as he beat Penn, and pushed Faber to the limit. Problem is 4 first round crushings past that is going to sting in a lot of peoples minds- not to mention there are more than a few "bad losses" on his resume. His place in MMA history is secure- but his name is going to have to be there with Faber and Penn on the opponents list.
Dan: I think so. He is 22-13-1 in his fighting career, but he is the only person to have ever defeated BJ Penn in lightweight. I think that adds a lot to hs resume and I think that it is enough to get him into the Hall of Fame.
Robert: Yes, he is a
Hall of Famer...if there was an MMA Hall of Fame. There is a UFC
Hall of Fame and he could/should be in it. He has been on a terrible
slide as of late but that doesn't diminish what he accomplished in his
career.
Submitted 02/22/10
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